The global drop in air traffic could reach 2023

Moody’s believes that the odds will recover from the Covid-19 crisis in approximately 2023 and warns that the sector is facing “profound structural change.“

Moody’s Investors Service, the New York-based risk rating agency, released a report showing that air travel demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels even during 2021, as many people will avoid traveling for reduce the risk of contagion, so it will be seen that the recovery will be effective in mid-2023, only if there are vaccines or medications that are effective and available to the public.

Demand plummeted by over 90% within a few weeks of the start of the pandemic, affecting the global economy as they were supported by around 3% of global gross domestic product in 2019, according to the report by Moody’s.

Despite the big drop, they have sometimes improved their liquidity since the crisis began. Among them, the strongest, and those that have been supported by the State, while the weakest restrictions have been really affected during these months of confinement, as a result, many of them could disappear. However, Moody’s emphasizes that the recovery will not regularly be faster for the industry’s largest regulations, but for the limitations in which national routes predominate.

The development of vaccines, drugs or protective devices against Covid-19 will be the key element to recover the aeronautical industry:

“An effective coronavirus vaccine will probably not be available until well into 2021, it will also take more time to cover mutations of the virus and requirements an adequate dose supply for the masses. Government support for the regulatory industry will be critical if employment levels are to be kept close to already reduced levels, and potentially avoid further airline restructuring and insolvency proceedings”, Moody’s said in its statement. published report. 

Meanwhile, the need to activate the aviation economy will undergo many modifications to change its operations and implement all the biosecurity measures to get the approval and trust of passengers.